MON AM News: Most bankers predict stability in state economy in coming months, survey finds; Milwaukee chef, restaurant owner not seeing expected RNC boost

July 1, 2024

— Bankers predict overall stability in the state economy over the next six months, according to the latest Wisconsin Bankers Association survey.

That’s a shift from the last three surveys conducted in late 2022, mid-2023 and late last year, when surveyed bankers were much more likely to say the state economy would weaken in subsequent months.

The latest online survey was conducted between May 21 and June 21 with 66 respondents, according to a release from WBA. It found 70% of respondents expect the state economy to stay the same over the coming six months while 23% expect it to weaken and 8% expect it to grow.

In the last survey near the end of 2023, the breakdown was 47%, 44% and 9%, respectively, reflecting an improvement in bankers’ outlook.

Meanwhile, 71% of respondents say the current health of Wisconsin’s economy is good, while 24% said it’s fair, 5% said it’s excellent and no one said it’s poor. By comparison, 62% in the previous survey said the state economy is good, 27% said it’s fair, 6% said it’s excellent and 5% said it’s poor.

“Bankers understand that individuals, families, and businesses continue to feel the pressure of inflation, and banks stand ready to assist their customers in weathering economic challenges,” WBA President and CEO Rose Oswald Poels said in a statement.

The share of bankers predicting lower inflation has dropped substantially from the three last surveys, with just 26% saying they expect inflation to fall in the coming six months. That’s down from 48% in the last survey, which was roughly in line with the two previous surveys. Sixty-six percent of bankers now expect inflation to remain the same, and 8% expect it to rise.

At the same time, expectations for a looming recession have dampened considerably. The share of respondents saying a recession is likely in the coming six months has dropped from 62% in late 2022 to 56% in mid-2023 to 32% last year, before hitting 18% in the latest survey.

Likewise, the percentage of those saying a recession is unlikely has risen from 3% to 5% to 18% and now 43% this year.

Surveyed bank CEOs highlighted a number of economic “bright spots,” including increased spending levels, high demand for construction and other products and services, as well as strong employment and production levels.

Still, they also pointed to concerns about grain and dairy price declines in the agricultural sector, and workforce shortages limiting growth in manufacturing, WBA notes. Plus, the coming U.S. presidential election has the potential to put a “pause on certain economic activity,” respondents indicated.

See the survey.

— The head chef and owner of Milwaukee restaurant Amilinda says the expected boost from the upcoming Republican National Convention isn’t materializing, and even regulars won’t be showing up during convention week.

Gregory Leon has been running the Spanish-Portuguese restaurant for close to nine years in downtown Milwaukee, about two blocks away from the edge of the security zone for the RNC. In an interview Friday, he said the close proximity to the political event will put a damper on his business.

“It’s not just me,” he told WisBusiness.com. “It’s a lot of restaurants in the city that have not seen that boost that we were told would happen.”

Despite expectations, Amilinda hasn’t landed any RNC-related bookings, and Leon says he’s been hearing from regular customers that they’ll be staying away while the convention is underway July 15-18.

“It’s also just keeping our regulars away,” he said. “A lot of our regulars have told us that they’re not going to be coming downtown that week, which I completely understand. So not only are we not getting a boost, it’s also hindering our normal, you know, traffic.”

Leon also said “who I am and what I stand for” may not align fully with conservative convention-goers.

“I’m gay, I’m half-Jewish, I’m half-Latino … we do a lot of work with refugees, and raise money for lots of other causes,” he said, noting a quick Google search of the restaurant would reveal his own progressive viewpoint. “And I’m speculating. I’m not saying everybody who’s coming to the convention would feel that way, but, you know.”

The restaurant is typically only open for dinner from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday through Saturday, but will be adding hours on the Monday and Tuesday of the convention week as well. Leon says he’s requested permits to be open until at least 2 a.m. on the days the convention takes place.

“We’re right next to one of the hotels where the press will be staying,” he said, referring to the nearby Marriott. “So we’re hoping, you know, we get some of that business.”

He argued organizers and tourism officials should be “a little more cautious” in their predictions about the convention’s immediate impact on local businesses, though he added he expects it will benefit the city overall.

“It’s a good, safe place with great things to do and great cuisine … I’m hoping that this translates to people coming next year for their vacation, or the following year,” he said. “I’m sure the people who are in the red zone, the security zone, are going to do great. I’m sure the businesses in the Pfizer Forum are going to do great. That’s awesome, good for them.”

But he added “maybe don’t paint it as” something that’s going to be great for everyone involved.

See more about the restaurant and find more convention coverage at WisPolitics.

— Marquette University has signed an agreement with GE HealthCare that “streamlines” the process for collaborating and developing talent.

That’s according to Carmel Ruffalo, associate vice president for corporate engagement at the Milwaukee-based university. This is the second such corporate agreement Marquette has entered, after the university signed a global research agreement with Kohler in 2021.

GE HealthCare, based in Chicago, provides a variety of medical technologies including imaging, health care IT, software, ultrasound, monitoring devices and much more.

Ruffalo says the expanded relationship with the company will create “exciting new opportunities” for working together. The university and business have collaborated on research and development of medical devices, including student-led design projects.

“To have the opportunity to work with a company of GE HealthCare’s stature is a great recognition, and this agreement streamlines the process for collaboration and talent development, which will foster innovation and problem solving,” Ruffalo said in a statement.

See the release.

— The number of Wisconsinites getting FoodShare benefits remains 16% higher than the pre-pandemic level, the Wisconsin Policy Forum reports.

This state program distributes federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP benefits.

Drawing on data from the state Department of Health Services, the WPF report shows 702,700 recipients were in the program as of March. While that’s down from the peak of 793,300 from May 2021, it remains 99,000 above the pre-pandemic number in March 2020. Prior to the increase at the start of the pandemic, which coincided with the spiking unemployment rate, the number of participants in the program had been steadily declining since late 2013.

Meanwhile, total benefit payments under SNAP in Wisconsin have fallen from the $193.8 million peak in December 2022 to $113.1 million in March, though that exceeds the total from March 2020 by $47.8 million, or about 73%. When adjusted for inflation, that gap shrinks to $34.1 million.

On a per-recipient basis, the average benefit has grown from $106 in March 2020 to $161 in March of this year.

Report authors note the “dire” job losses at the pandemic’s start may have led people who would have previously qualified for the benefit to apply for the first time. And more people became aware of the program during the pandemic due to increased community outreach, the report shows.

“At the same time, stigma surrounding the use of this public welfare program may have lessened, reducing barriers that may have prevented some people from applying in the past,” authors wrote. “These factors may have resulted in some new enrollees remaining in the program even as unemployment fell.”

The report also highlights “steep increases” in both the cost of living and food prices in recent years as a possible contributing factor, particularly for people with fixed incomes. And changes to eligibility requirements may have had an impact, WPF says.

“As the economy grows and inflation slows, enrollment may well resume its descent,” report authors wrote. “Yet for now at least, greater reliance on FoodShare for many Wisconsin residents appears to be the new normal.”

See the report.

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