FRI AM News: Experts say trade war will bring short-term pain, though stability expected later; WisBusiness: the Podcast with Brent Halfwassen, MKE Business Coach

March 21, 2025

— Amid the chaos posed by the ongoing trade war, experts say short-term pain is inevitable but they expect global trade will stabilize as the conflict plays out.

Speaking yesterday during a “Talking Trade” podcast event at Carroll University in Waukesha, panelists explored impacts of the tariffs recently enacted under the Trump administration. They also talked about retaliatory moves by targeted countries — both friends and foes alike.

Tim Sullivan, dean of the university’s Sullivan School of Business and Technology, said “the business community is not happy” with the current uncertainty caused by Trump’s “unconventional and dramatic” approach to trade negotiations.

“We like certainty, we like to plan,” said Sullivan, who used to run Bucyrus. “If you’re a public company, you’ve got to come out quarterly and tell your shareholders how you’re going to perform, not only for this quarter but for the year … Trump is playing the long game. And the long game, though, is finite. He’s got four years.”

Sullivan expressed confidence that the international trade situation will likely settle down within six months or a year. He said he has faith in the administration’s plan given the “horrible” national debt problem and trade imbalances with other countries Trump is seeking to address.

“The investment community, you know, they’re starting to relax a little bit, and they need to relax a lot more,” he said. “Things will be fine.”

Still, the ripple effects of the U.S. tariffs and responses by other nations are certain to have impacts, panelists said, including higher domestic prices in some cases.

Ken Wasylik, managing director of international business firm E.M. Wasylik Associates, said “nobody really thought” close U.S. trade allies Mexico and Canada would be hit with such severe tariffs, and trade relationships with other countries are far from settled.

“Our exporters that are selling to Europe are very nervous, because they’re expecting some really tough countervailing tariffs from the European Union and some of the other countries … They’re being very guarded, they’re telling their customers buy now, don’t wait,” he said. “Because if it actually comes through, prices are going to be up 20 percent, 25 percent.”

Sandi Siegel, president of Milwaukee customs broker M.E. Dey, noted an upcoming April 2 deadline for possible reciprocal U.S. tariffs that could be imposed on other nations based on trade imbalances and tariff rates. She said this marks an effort to level the playing field, but noted the administration’s messaging references the possibility of striking a deal in advance to avoid further tariffs.

“When [tariffs] first went in 2019, nobody thought they were going to stick, including me,” she said, adding in some cases businesses negotiated lower prices with vendors in China. “So China did absorb some of it. And then as [tariffs] stuck, as you will, over the four, five years, they started looking for other places to manufacture, like Vietnam.”

Similarly, adjustments are now being made to other countries’ approaches to international commerce, according to Alexandra Sielaff, director of Carroll University’s MBA program. She pointed to Canada possibly reevaluating a contract to buy dozens of F-35 combat aircraft from the United States as an example.

“And so you see rapid movement to readjust the supply chain based on new relationships,” she said.

Sielaff also noted recent changes in Canada’s oil and gas policies, as the country is now looking to sell liquified natural gas to Asian nations in a reversal from its earlier stance.

“You see a lot of nervous tension among Canadians about where it’s all going, so it is a fluid situation,” she said.

Sullivan used the analogy of industry moving like water, finding new paths when faced with obstacles. Sielaff agreed with the comparison.

“I think the initial bump is going to be painful, and like water, folks are going to be seeking new markets where they can get the best price,” she said.

Ultimately, businesses’ bottom lines will drive their purchasing and exporting decisions, regardless of efforts by heads of state to effect change on the global stage, panelists said.

“Even now, with 45% on China, I have some customers telling me it’s still cheaper than trying to source it here in the U.S.,” Siegel said. “That’s the reality.”

Find earlier episodes of “Talking Trade” here, co-hosted by Wasylik and Siegel.

— This week’s episode of “WisBusiness: the Podcast” is with Brent Halfwassen, founder and owner of MKE Business Coach.

Halfwassen shares his approach to business growth consulting, which combines financial analysis with making proactive changes at key points in a company’s development.

“Being a growth business means you can upgrade your current business. You can be amazing at your skill, craft or trade, you can actually grow quite a successful business, have quite a few employees,” he said. “There seem to be these break points, where the business model needs to change if we’re going to be successful.”

He typically works with companies with $1 million and $50 million in revenue, though some have been outside that range.

“That sweet spot is in the middle. Depending on that stage of business, oftentimes they don’t have very much of an established executive team, or a very early on executive team,” he said. “And again, they’re great at what they do, and they’ve built a great following around them … what happens is, just being good enough isn’t going to get us to the next level.”

According to Halfwassen, making data-informed changes and establishing new processes can unlock potential for more growth “that doesn’t introduce as much risk as people think.”

The discussion highlights the importance of leveraging financial metrics in this approach, and understanding how business decisions can influence performance.

“Don’t just look at it and go, huh, those numbers look good. They’re up, they’re down, they’re left, they’re right — that’s not helpful,” he said. “Be willing to take some action.”

Halfwassen also discusses what he’s hoping to accomplish in 2025, building on efforts to establish referral partnerships and other relationships in the business community.

“We’re feeling the demand for more of that fractional, do-it-for-us service, in part because the owners are maxed,” he said. “They grew it to $25 million not by having a lot of idle capacity.”

Listen to the podcast and see the full list of WisBusiness.com podcasts.

— Wisconsin home sales rose 7% in February, marking a “promising improvement” in the housing market’s slow season, the Wisconsin Realtors Association reports.

Still, the group’s February report shows the market continues to struggle to keep up with demand, driving prices ever higher.

A total of 3,707 homes were sold in February, compared to 3,463 one year earlier. At the same time, total statewide listings rose by 0.4% to 16,037 and the state’s median home price rose 10.9% over the year to $304,900 last month.

February’s increase in home sales more than tripled the growth rate for January, the report shows. Chris DeVincentis, chair of the WRA Board of Directors, says the 7% increase “is remarkable given the affordability challenges in the market.”

Those challenges show no signs of abating, according to WRA President and CEO Tom Larson, who points to “significant unmet millennial demand” for housing.

“Unfortunately these buyers face significant headwinds with rising prices and high mortgage rates taking a toll on affordability,” he said in the report. “Given the weakness in inventories, we can expect strong price pressure for the foreseeable future.”

See the report and release.

— GOP lawmakers are circulating legislation that would boost reimbursement rates for certain emergency medical services in Wisconsin, as well as providing more funding for training and education.

Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, and Rep. Tony Kurtz, R-Wonewoc, recently announced the bill package.

It would boost the Medicaid reimbursement rate for calls where responders provide treatment but don’t need to transport the patient, provide $7 million per year to the Wisconsin Technical College System for EMS training and create a regional EMS levy limit exemption, according to their release.

In a co-sponsorship memo on the reimbursement rate bill, the authors note ambulances that respond to a 911 call but don’t transport the patient to an emergency department get “little-to-no reimbursement” for supplies or care. Under the legislation, the rate for such calls would be increased to match the rate for services that include patient transport.

“This increase recognizes the important role that EMS plays in healthcare and the service they provide,” authors wrote.

Their bills would also reimburse emergency medical service volunteers for the cost of initial training once licensed, while requiring an annual report on changes to the EMS scope of practice nationally and in the state.

Marklein and Kurtz say recruiting and retaining first responders is a top challenge for local EMS departments.

“While there is not a one-size-fits-all approach to solving this issue, this legislation is another step in the right direction,” they said in a joint statement.

They plan to formally introduce the bills in the coming weeks. The co-sponsorship deadline for all the bills is noon on March 31.

See the release.

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